Polymarket 5-min settlement-reversal · paper trading

feed: ok binance: 26mshyperliquid: 3527mspolymarket: 285ms uptime 1h last tick 2026-07-08 11:28:23Z

Cumulative net PnL
(4.5 bps/side, +10s)

-$0.13

Cycles logged

1 days · 100.0% data-ok

NTM cycles

11.1% of all · paper ≈ 6%

Trades booked

NTM reversal γ (HL)

—

t = — · target ≤ −0.10

Decision gate: KILL

NTM reversal coefficient not distinguishable from 0 (γ_HL=NaN, |t|=NaN)
Underpowered on PnL: only 1 trades (regression on all cycles is the powered test)

Action log · every 5-minute market (most recent first)

time (UTC)	market result	NTM	push r29	flagged?	suggested	action	P/L (4.5bps)
07-08 11:25	DOWN ▼	no	+0.00	no	—	no action	—
07-08 11:20	UP ▲	no	+0.00	no	—	no action	—
07-08 11:15	DOWN ▼	no	+0.00	no	—	no action	—
07-08 11:10	UP ▲	no	+0.00	no	—	no action	—
07-08 11:05	DOWN ▼	no	-1.93	no	—	no action	—
07-08 11:00	UP ▲	no	+7.58	no	—	no action	—
07-08 10:55	UP ▲	no	+1.17	no	—	no action	—
07-08 10:50	UP ▲	yes	+6.28	FLAGGED	SHORT (down)	taken	LOSS -$0.13
07-08 10:45	UP ▲	no	+1.48	no	—	no action	—
07-08 10:40	DOWN ▼	no	+0.00	no	—	no action	—
07-08 10:35	UP ▲	no	-0.50	no	—	no action	—
07-08 10:30	UP ▲	no	+1.78	no	—	no action	—
07-08 10:25	UP ▲	no	-0.92	no	—	no action	—
07-08 10:20	UP ▲	no	+0.77	no	—	no action	—
07-08 10:15	UP ▲	no	+0.00	no	—	no action	—
07-08 10:10	DOWN ▼	no	+0.32	no	—	no action	—
07-08 10:05	DOWN ▼	no	-0.67	no	—	no action	—
07-08 10:00	—	yes	-0.37	no	—	no action	—

Fade = trade opposite the final-10s push. FLAGGED = near-the-money and |r29| ≥ 5 bps (we take it). Otherwise no action, but every cycle is logged. WIN/LOSS = whether the position moved our way; P/L is after fees.

Cumulative paper PnL (net, 4.5 bps/side)

Daily net PnL

Reversal regression r₊₁ ~ 1 + r29 (Hyperliquid, date-clustered SE)

subset	γ	se	t	n
ALL	0.249	0.000	9734117407394638.00	18
FFM	0.011	0.000	206907264937158.06	16
NTM	—	—	—	0
δ (NTM×r29)	0.197	0.000	4420119148375112.50	18

Net expectancy · push ≥ threshold · +10s exit

thr (bps)	fee/side	mean net bps	t	win%	total $	n
≥5.0	4.5	-13.34	—	0.0%	-$0.13	1
≥5.0	3.0	-10.34	—	0.0%	-$0.10	1
≥5.0	1.5	-7.34	—	0.0%	-$0.07	1
≥10.0	4.5	—	—	—	$0.00	0
≥10.0	3.0	—	—	—	$0.00	0
≥10.0	1.5	—	—	—	$0.00	0
≥15.0	4.5	—	—	—	$0.00	0
≥15.0	3.0	—	—	—	$0.00	0
≥15.0	1.5	—	—	—	$0.00	0

Daily breakdown

date	cycles	data-ok	NTM	trades	gross bps	net $ (4.5)	net $ (3.0)	net $ (1.5)	cum $
2026-07-08	18	100.0%	2	1	-4.34	-$0.13	-$0.10	-$0.07	-$0.13

Net totals across fee tiers (+10s): 4.5 bps = -$0.13 · 3.0 bps = -$0.10 · 1.5 bps = -$0.07
polymarket-5m-settlement-reversal · week1-locked · config c496862af1d7 · page auto-refreshes every 30s · paper only, no orders placed.